Los Angeles County · January 2025
Palisades & Eaton Fires
Financial Impact
29 Lives Lost · ~180,000 Residents Displaced at Peak
$36B – $40B
in property destroyed
structures destroyed · Los Angeles County · January 2025 · pre-fire market value
Three independent estimates are shown below. They measure different things and must not be added together.
Estimate 01
Headline Estimate
Property Only — Not Additive
$36B – $40B
Market Value of Destroyed Structures
The buildings that burned, valued at what they were worth before the fire. Based on CAL FIRE field inspections of every damaged structure.
California's fire agency (CAL FIRE) sent inspectors to every burned building. They counted 16,249 destroyed or seriously damaged structures.
We multiplied that by what homes in those neighborhoods were worth before the fire — $3.3M average in Pacific Palisades, $1.4M average in Altadena.
This gives us the market value of what burned.
We multiplied that by what homes in those neighborhoods were worth before the fire — $3.3M average in Pacific Palisades, $1.4M average in Altadena.
This gives us the market value of what burned.
Source: CAL FIRE field inspections (Feb 5, 2025) · California Association of Realtors 2024
Estimate 02
Separate — Not Additive
$3.9B
Nearby Home Values Affected
Properties that survived but lost value because of their proximity to the fires. This is a paper loss — not money paid out — and may recover over time.
Researchers studied dozens of California wildfires and found that homes near — but not in — a fire zone typically lose about 2.2% of their value.
We applied that rate to roughly 75,000 homes within 5 miles of these fires, worth about $175B combined.
We applied that rate to roughly 75,000 homes within 5 miles of these fires, worth about $175B combined.
Source: Sathaye et al. (2024) · Landscape and Urban Planning
Estimate 03
SmokeStory Unique Contribution
Health Cost — Not Additive
$0.5B – $1.0B
Health Cost of Smoke
4.2 million residents breathed hazardous air for 14 days. This estimates the economic cost: hospital visits, emergency room trips, missed work days, and asthma attacks. This estimate excludes mortality risk and long-term health effects — it is a deliberate lower bound.
SmokeStory's air quality sensors recorded LA County's air quality during the fires. For 14 days, PM2.5 levels averaged 44.8 µg/m³ — nearly 5 times the safe limit.
We used the EPA BenMAP cost-of-illness method to calculate the economic cost of air pollution: counting hospital visits, emergency room trips, missed work days, and asthma attacks caused by the smoke.
This is a health cost, not a property cost. Do not add to the estimates above.
We used the EPA BenMAP cost-of-illness method to calculate the economic cost of air pollution: counting hospital visits, emergency room trips, missed work days, and asthma attacks caused by the smoke.
This is a health cost, not a property cost. Do not add to the estimates above.
Source: EPA BenMAP TSD (2023) · SmokeStory PM2.5 data · EPA AQS January 2025
How This Compares to Other Estimates
Published Estimates from Independent Sources · Estimate 01 Shown for Comparison Only
Moody's and Milliman measure insured losses only. UCLA Anderson measures total property and capital losses. SmokeStory Estimate 01 measures market value of destroyed structures including uninsured losses — a different but compatible scope. These are not competing estimates; they measure different things.
These three estimates measure different things and must not be added together.
All figures are preliminary estimates using public data and established methodology.
Data vintage: CAR 2024 · EPA AQS January 2025.
SmokeStory is an independent open-source project, not an insurance company, government agency, or academic institution.
Read Full Methodology →
All figures are preliminary estimates using public data and established methodology.
Data vintage: CAR 2024 · EPA AQS January 2025.
SmokeStory is an independent open-source project, not an insurance company, government agency, or academic institution.
Sources & Citations
Deaths (29): LA County Medical Examiner confirmed toll as of January 31, 2025 — 12 from Palisades Fire, 17 from Eaton Fire. Source: CAL FIRE incident reports; Los Angeles Times, Jan. 31, 2025.
Evacuations (~180,000 at peak): LA County Sheriff Robert Luna press conference, January 9, 2025. Reported by CNBC and AP. Additional residents under evacuation warnings brought the total affected to over 300,000.
Structure count (16,249): CAL FIRE Damage Inspection (DINS) report, February 5, 2025.
Home values (Pacific Palisades $3.3M, Altadena $1.4M): California Association of Realtors, 2024 median sales data.
Nearby property value loss (2.2%): Sathaye et al. (2024), "Wildfire risk and housing markets," Landscape and Urban Planning.
Health cost methodology: EPA BenMAP Technical Support Document (2023). Air quality data: EPA AQS, January 2025.
Comparison estimates: Moody's RMS (insured losses, Jan. 2025); Milliman (insured losses, Feb. 2025); UCLA Anderson School of Management economic impact report, February 2025.